In the auction business, we often deliver great news—and not-so-great news—with our auction sale results. After all, we are the messenger of what the market is telling us on that day. When commodity prices tick up—especially corn and bean prices—our sellers benefit. Equipment and land prices tend to follow. When corn or soybeans drop, we feel it almost immediately on the equipment side. Land, however, tends to lag a bit on the downswing, but it reacts fast when prices turn favorable.

The price of beans rally around auction day? Bingo. Everyone walks in with a little more bounce in their step and is just a bit more eager to buy, especially equipment.

So, want to know where land prices are headed? Study the three leading indicators we’ve always pointed to:

1.     Commodity Prices

2.     Interest Rates

3.     Yields

We first saw a subtle downturn in the land market during the fall of 2023. Then spring of 2024 rolled around and brought record land prices in many of our trade areas. I wrote about those records last April. Honestly, those results had me second-guessing my forecast.

But now that 2024 is in the rearview and we’ve seen significant activity when it comes to farmland transactions in the first part of 2025, there’s no doubt: land prices are off their highs. Looking back, those highs were probably hit in late 2023. That said, we’re still in a strong position historically when it comes to land values. There are plenty of active buyers out there, especially for good land that rents well or yields well.

We’ve seen that firsthand all spring on our land auctions across the Midwest. It’s just not quite at 2023 or early 2024 levels—but it’s still dang close.

Now, marginal land with issues? That’s definitely corrected. The extent of that correction depends on the neighborhood, buyer perception, and how severe the quality issues are.

These last several months have proven that a decrease in commodity prices takes time to show up in the land market. When prices are strong in the spring—like they were in 2023—many farmers forward sell their crop, locking in handsome profits that eventually get deployed into land purchases. In short, it takes time for that wealth to show up—and then get spent.

So, what’s next? Watch the markets. On the upswing, expect land values to react pretty quick. But when prices take a turn for the worse, expect that to show up in land prices several months down the road.

That kind of hardiness or resilience in land values is exactly what attracts folks to land ownership. It’s an excellent investment—one that tends to offer conservative yields, strong long-term appreciation, and it weathers market downturns better than equities or many other investments.