STABILITY IN SHIFTING TIMES: AN OUTLOOK ON LAND VALUES

 

It’s hard to believe that in 2026, America will turn 250 years old. Those living here today, along with our ancestors, have been through a lot since fighting for our independence. Some 27 years after doing so, Thomas Jefferson sent James Monroe to France to negotiate the purchase of what we today refer to as the Louisiana Purchase. What did it cost? $15 million. What did we get? 530 million acres.

I happen to find that interesting, due to a recent report from American Farmland Trust that says over 300 million acres across America are set to transition to a new owner in the next 20 years. Seeing these numbers written out brings things into perspective. Year over year, we conduct farmland auctions; each year since the Great Depression we’ve seen where prices have either increased exponentially or remained stable with a gradual rise, unnoticed by many if not paying attention.

After a pretty substantial rise in price in the years following COVID, we again saw much of our trade area enter a period of stable or gradual rise in 2025. It then begs the question, with cash commodity prices currently at below breakeven levels and input prices at historically high levels: Where are land values going in 2026? While we don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future here at Steffes, we believe that 2026 shows signs of a continued period of stability or a gradual rise in values, with the outlier being those acres best suited for grazing livestock. The cattle complex fundamentally shows signs of continued strength, and that will likely add pressure to pasture cash rents and pasture values.

As land buying and selling opportunities arise this year, keep the auction method of marketing in mind. The single best word to describe an auction is “fair.” You as a buyer can offer a “fair” price through competitive bidding, and you as the seller can get a “fair” price from a diversified mix of buyers. It’s important to know and understand that true price discovery doesn’t always make sense right here, right now. However, history shows us that the risk of waiting doesn’t present a great deal of opportunity to make the same purchase for less. Just think: Thomas Jefferson likely thought $15 million was a lot of money to pay in 1803, and it was. However, what would it have cost if he waited, and would he have had the same opportunity to buy the same amount of acres? We will never know that answer, but what we learn from this, and from the purchases you will likely make this year, is that farmland continues to be one of the single best investments in America. It has been for the first 250 years and will likely continue to be for the next 250.