2025 is here, and it is clear we reached the peak of the land market last year. So, what now? Is the land market going to slide into the abyss and correct drastically? Are we going to hit new highs this year? Will it remain flat?

Let’s look at past cycles to try to draw some conclusions.

The Last Peak – 2012/13
The land market last peaked in 2013. In most states, it wasn’t until 2016 that the land market truly bottomed out. This is evident if you look at most of the land surveys from that time in your area. It took about eight years for the land market to cycle back up to the heights we previously saw.

2014
As I look back at this last cycle, 2014 jumps out as the year to compare with 2025. If you remember, 2013 saw some trickle-over in big land prices, largely related to the big commodity prices we saw during the harvest of 2012. It wasn’t until the fall of 2013 that the land market corrected in a notable way. 2024 felt a lot like 2013 in that regard. If we examine the land market during 2014 in most states, we see some gradual corrections taking place during that time. Most states experienced between a 5% and 10% decline in values.

Obviously, it’s a different year with different circumstances, but let’s compare net farm income, commodity prices, and other factors.

Net Farm Income & Commodity Prices
Net farm income dropped about 27% in 2014 after falling 16% the year before in 2013. In 2025, it is expected to drop 6%, after falling 4% last year and 17% in 2023. The price of corn went from close to $7 to just shy of $4 during 2012-2014 (close to a 50% decline). The price of corn has decreased about 35% since 2022 to the present day.
The world is obviously a very different place now compared to 2014, but I do believe there are some parallels here.

My Prediction
The land market in the Midwest will likely be flat to down 7.5%. I don’t think we’ll see double-digit declines in land values, especially on the “good stuff.” Land is just too sought after, and there is far more demand out there, from what I’ve been seeing, than there is land for sale. Moreover, there is still significant demand for rented land, which will keep investors active and interested.

On top of all that, we are stepping into the new year with more government money coming farmers’ way (Google “Economic Loss Assistance Program Payments” if you haven’t heard). This is all good news if you’re planning to be a buyer or seller this year. For buyers, you’ll probably be able to purchase land this year cheaper than last year. For sellers, keep history in mind. Land values have reached eye-watering levels, and exiting not far off from those heights is still a very favorable environment to sell into!